A booming jobs report isn't an all-clear signal for the economy
America added
a booming number of jobs last month. But don't break out the champagne just yet.
Some economists are largely attributing the impressive 266,000 job gains to easing trade tensions and Fed interest rate cuts. But they continue to predict a slowdown in the economy and labor market next year, with a risk of recession still looming.
It doesn’t tell us a whole lot about where we’re headed,” says Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.
Still, analysts say recent developments have put the economy in a better place and at least lowered the chances of a downturn.
The huge number of jobs added by employers in November far exceeded the 184,000 expected. Even after accounting for 46,000 General Motors employees who returned to work after a six-week strike, a robust 220,000 jobs were added last month.
A closer look shows the strong performance caps an acceleration in payroll growth to an average 205,000 from September through November, up from 176,000 the first eight months of the year.
Why the pickup?
The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate for the first time in a decade in late July and followed with two more cuts in September and October, spurring more borrowing and economic activity and goosing the stock market.
“They put a floor underneath the downside risk,” Anderson says, giving companies confidence the Fed will do what’s necessary to prevent the U.S. trade war with China and a sluggish global economy from dousing consumer spending and derailing the record 10-year-old expansion.
Fed officials, who meet this week, have said they have put rate cuts on hold unless the economy “materially” worsens.
Also, in early October, U.S. and Chinese negotiators announced they were close to a phase I trade deal to head off additional tariffs that are set to take effect Dec. 15 and would affect cellphones and many other consumer products.
While the two sides are still haggling over details, analysts continue to expect an agreement that would entail more Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, though it wouldn’t affect existing duties or some deeper conflicts between the two countries.
It’s no coincidence this is going on at the same time” that job growth has picked up momentum, says Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.
Other positive developments may also be playing a role. The risk that Britain will leave the European Union without a trade deal with the continent -- a scenario known as a hard Brexit – has fallen in recent months.
And in a sign of easing recession threats, the relationship between short- and long-term bonds is more stable. Three-month Treasury yields edged above 10-year rates in March, a yield curve “inversion” that traditionally heralds a dowturn a year or two down the road. But 10-year yields climbed above three-month rates in October, in part because of the Fed rate cuts.
Half of senior executives recently expressed optimism about the U.S. economic outlook over the next 12 months, up from 42% in the third quarter, according to a fourth-quarter survey by the American Institute of CPAs.
Despite the positive developments, President Trump easily could impose the consumer-related tariffs next year if China doesn’t make concessions toward a bigger agreement, Swonk says. The weak global economy, the lack of a broader U.S.-China pact and the risk that China violates the Phase I deal will leave a cloud of uncertainty over the economy and business confidence next year, Swonk says.
Anderson expects the trade and global troubles to have a bigger effect on consumer spending next year.
Swonk predicts economic growth will slow to 1.6% in 2020 from 2.3% this year while monthly job growth averages just above 100,000. She reckons the odds of recession by the end of 2020 are 51%.
Others are more sanguine. Economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators have the chance of a downturn at about 34%. Barclays economist Jonathan Millar puts the risk at 25% to 30%, down from 35% a few months ago.
The 266,000 job gains last month further eased fears of a downturn, but the report also provided clues that the economy and labor market may be downshifting. Yearly wage growth edged down to 3.1% and has moderated after picking up steam the second half of last year. And rather than reflecting a broad-based surge in job growth,
much of last month’s acceleration was in health care, Anderson says, a hiring spree that’s unlikely to be repeated in the months ahead.
under Don the Con man......he ain't doing ******* for America...Just like with Obama......the people aren't seeing it no matter how good the numbers look
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, lives in The United States of
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working for
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Under Trump, CEO Pay Soars While Employee Wages Decrease—And Tax Cuts Could Make Gap Even Bigger. Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated promises to raise the salaries of average Americans, chief executives earned 312 times more than the average employee during his first year in office, according to a new analysis by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).
does the same thing after his position of POTUS, would he not deserve the same credit if not more as he was handicapped with all forms of mechanisms to remove him from office since the day he was inaugurated as POTUS?
