Deficit by President: What Budget Deficits Hide
By Dollar and Percent
Which President ran the largest
budget deficits? There are two ways to answer that question. The most popular way is to add up the deficits for each year the President was in office. But a President doesn’t control the first year’s deficit. The previous President and Congress already approved that
federal budget. That's because the Federal government's
fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30.
As a result, a new President has no influence on the deficit for January through September 30 of that first year.
So, the best way is to look at the budget each President created. Then add the deficits for those budgets. That reflects the President's priorities in black and white. It measures the impact of
deficit spending and tax changes in dollars and cents.
5 Factors That Influence the Deficit
The President is ultimately responsible for the budget deficit. But there are five influential factors.
First, the President has no control over the
mandatory budget or its deficit. That includes Social Security and Medicare benefits. They are the two biggest expenses any President has. The mandatory budget estimates what these programs will cost. The Acts of Congress that created the programs also mandate the spending. Unless the President can get Congress to remove or change them, he's got to live with that spending.
Second, the Constitution gave
Congress, not the President, the power to control spending. The President’s budget is starting point. Each house of Congress prepares a
discretionary spending budget. They combine them into the final budget that the President reviews and signs. For more, see
Budget Process
Third, each President inherits many of his predecessors' policies. For example, every President suffered from lower revenue. That's a result of President Reagan's and President Bush's
tax cuts. Presidents who raise taxes quickly become unpopular. As a result, tax cuts rarely disappear.
Fourth, some Presidents had to deal with catastrophic events. President Obama responded to the worst
recession since the Great Depression. President Bush reacted to the
9/11 terrorist attack and
Hurricane Katrina. Their required responses came with economic price tags.
Fifth, each year's
deficit adds to the debt. But the total amount added to the debt each year is usually more than the deficit. That's because Presidents can "borrow" from the
Social Security Trust Fund. That's the largest of the federal retirement funds that run a surplus. That makes the deficit smaller than what's added to the debt. For example, President Bush's stated budget deficits totaled $3.294 trillion. But he added $5.849 trillion to the debt.
He borrowed the rest from Social Security in an
off-budget transaction. See
How Much Each President Contributed to the Debt.
President Barack Obama
President Obama has the largest deficits. By the end of his final budget (FY 2017), his deficits will total $6.616 trillion.
Obama took office during the Great Recession. He immediately needed to spend billions to stop it. He convinced Congress to add the $787 billion economic stimulus package to Bush’s FY 2009 budget. It added $253 billion to the FY 2009 budget. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act added the remaining $534 billion over the rest of Obama’s terms.
In 2010, the
Obama tax cut added $858 billion to the debt in its first two years. Obama increased
defense spending, adding as much as $800 billion a year.
Federal income decreased due to lower tax receipts from the
2008 financial crisis.
Both Presidents Bush and Obama suffered from
higher mandatory spending than their predecessors did. Social Security and Medicare benefits eating up more of the budget. That's because
health care costs were rising as the American population aged. In 2010, Obama launched the
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. It sought to reduce health care spending. That would lower the debt by $143 billion by 2020. For more, see
National Debt Under Obama.
President George W. Bush
President Bush is next, racking up $3.293 trillion over two terms. He responded to the
attacks on 9/11 with the
War on Terror. That sent military spending to a higher level of $600 billion a year. The
Bush tax cuts, also known as
EGTRRA and
JGTRRA, cut taxes to address the 2001 recession. Unfortunately, the cuts did not sunset when the recession was over. That worsened the housing boom and depleted revenues during the 2008 recession. He attacked the
2008 financial crisis with the
$700 billion bailout. Congress added it to the mandatory budget. There it became the Troubled Asset Relief Program (
TARP).
President Ronald Reagan
President Reagan added $1.412 trillion in deficits, nearly doubling the debt. He fought the 1982 recession by cutting the top income tax rate from 70 percent to 28 percent. Reagan cut the corporate rate from 48 percent to 34 percent. He also increased
government spending by 2.5 percent a year. That included a 35 percent increase in the defense budget and an expansion of Medicare.
President George H.W. Bush
President George H.W. Bush created a $1.03 trillion deficit in one term. He responded to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait with Desert Storm. He oversaw the $125 billion bailout that ended the
1989 Savings and Loan crisis. The 1991 recession cut into
tax revenue.
Budget Deficits by Fiscal Year
Although most other Presidents ran deficits, none came close to these four. Part of that is because the U.S. economy, as measured by
GDP, was so much smaller for other Presidents. For example, in 1981 GDP was only $3 trillion, growing by five times to $15 trillion in 2012.
The table below shows each President's annual
budget deficits since Woodrow Wilson. For more, see
Deficit by Year and
Debt by Year.
President Barack Obama: Total Projected Plus Actual Deficits = $6.616 trillion, a 57 percent increase.
-
- FY 2017 - $441 billion projected.
- FY 2016 - $600 billion expected.
- FY 2015 - $438 billion.
- FY 2014 - $485 billion.
- FY 2013 - $679 billion.
- FY 2012 - $1.087 trillion.
- FY 2011 - $1.300 trillion.
- FY 2010 - $1.587 ($1.294 trillion plus $253 billion from the Obama Stimulus Act that was attached to the FY 2009 budget).
President George W. Bush: Total = $3.293 trillion, a 57 percent increase.
-
- FY 2009 - $1.16 trillion. ($1.413 trillion minus $253 billion from Obama's Stimulus Act)
- FY 2008 - $459 billion.
- FY 2007 - $161 billion.
- FY 2006 - $248 billion.
- FY 2005 - $318 billion.
- FY 2004 - $413 billion.
- FY 2003 - $378 billion.
- FY 2002 - $158 billion.
President Bill Clinton: Total = $63 billion surplus, a 1 percent decrease.
-
- FY 2001 - $128 billion surplus.
- FY 2000 - $236 billion surplus.
- FY 1999 - $126 billion surplus.
- FY 1998 - $69 billion surplus.
- FY 1997 - $22 billion.
- FY 1996 - $107 billion.
- FY 1995 - $164 billion.
- FY 1994 - $203 billion.
President George H.W. Bush: Total = $1.036 trillion, a 36 percent increase.
-
- FY 1993 - $255 billion.
- FY 1992 - $290 billion.
- FY 1991 - $269 billion.
- FY 1990 - $221 billion.
President Ronald Reagan: Total = $1.412 trillion, a 142 percent increase
-
- FY 1989 - $153 billion.
- FY 1988 - $155 billion.
- FY 1987 - $150 billion.
- FY 1986 - $221 billion.
- FY 1985 - $212 billion.
- FY 1984 - $185 billion.
- FY 1983 - $208 billion.
- FY 1982 - $128 billion.
President Jimmy Carter: Total = $253 billion, a 36 percent increase.
-
- FY 1981 - $79 billion.
- FY 1980 - $74 billion.
- FY 1979 - $41 billion.
- FY 1978 - $59 billion.
President Gerald Ford: Total = $181 billion, a 38 percent increase.
-
- FY 1977 - $54 billion.
- FY 1976 - $74 billion.
- FY 1975 - $53 billion.
President Richard Nixon: Total = $70 billion, a 20 percent increase.
-
- FY 1974 - $6 billion.
- FY 1973 - $15 billion.
- FY 1972 - $23 billion.
- FY 1971 - $23 billion.
- FY 1970 - $3 billion.
President Lyndon B. Johnson: Total = $36 billion, an 11 percent increase.
-
- FY 1969 - $3 billion surplus.
- FY 1968 - $25 billion.
- FY 1967 - $9 billion.
- FY 1966 - $4 billion.
- FY 1965 - $1 billion.
President John F. Kennedy: Total = $18 billion, a 6 percent increase.
-
- FY 1964 - $6 billion.
- FY 1963 - $5 billion.
- FY 1962 - $7 billion.
President Dwight Eisenhower: Total = $15 billion, a 6 percent increase.
-
- FY 1961 - $3 billion.
- FY 1960 - $0 billion (slight surplus).
- FY 1959 - $13 billion.
- FY 1958 - $3 billion.
- FY 1957 - $3 billion surplus.
- FY 1956 - $4 billion surplus.
4 pres with largest deficit
While most U.S. presidents over the past 75 years
have run budget deficits for many if not all of their years in office, there are four whose deficits have far exceeded those of their peers. The four presidents who have run the largest deficits are, in order from most to least, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
There are two ways to look at the U.S.
budget deficit when determining which president has run the largest deficit. The first is to look at each president's term or terms in office, total the deficits run over the course of their four or eight years and base your conclusions on those numbers. According to this method, Barack Obama's budget is projected to run a deficit of $7.3 trillion over his eight years, making him the president with the largest budget deficit. George W. Bush is second, with a deficit of $3.29 trillion over his eight years. Ronald Reagan is third at $1.412 trillion deficit in eight years and George H.W. Bush comes in fourth with a $1.03 trillion deficit in his single term.
While totaling the deficit over each president's term to see who has run the largest deficit seems to be common sense on the surface, the responsibility for the budget is not so black and white a question. For one thing, Congress has to vote to approve the U.S. budget and the allocation of government spending for things such as
economic stimulus packages or affordable health care that add to the deficit. For another, mandatory spending is automatically built into the budget for national programs such as
Social Security, welfare and Medicare. These programs are acts of Congress and would require further acts to amend or eliminate them. The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30; for the first nine months a new president is in office, he is working with the budget laid down by his predecessor.
The laws governing the federal
fiscal year are the reason that a second way to look at budget deficits is on a year-by-year basis. In years when a new president is elected, there are two plans at work: the old plan laid out by the previous administration and the new plan brought in by the new president. The single largest budget deficit in U.S. history happened during such a year; the 2009 fiscal year clocked a $1.412 trillion deficit. For the first third of that year, President George W. Bush was in office, while for the last eight months, Barack Obama took the White House. In October 2008, after Bush's budget was approved for the 2009 fiscal year, the Dow dropped dramatically, recording three of its 10 worst-ever days in a single month. After Obama took office, fears of a looming
recession encouraged Congress to pass an economic stimulus package, immediately adding a further $253 billion to Bush's already-approved budget, and making the $1.412 trillion deficit the work of two administrations.
Jobs Created in Thousands
| President
| Political Party
|
6,566
| Franklin D. Roosevelt
| Democrat
|
8,781
| Harry S. Truman
| Democrat
|
1,556
| Dwight D. Eisenhower
| Republican
|
2,729
| John F. Kennedy
| Democrat
|
8,895
| Lyndon B. Johnson
| Democrat
|
5,254
| Richard Nixon
| Republican
|
2,235
| Gerald Ford
| Republican
|
8,601
| Jimmy Carter
| Democrat
|
13,621
| Ronald Reagan
| Republican
|
1,084
| George H. W. Bush
| Republican
|
19,662
| Bill Clinton
| Democrat
|
-338
| George W. Bush
| Republican
|
7,765
| Barack Obama
| Democrat
|